I. Three-layer pricing

1. OSP (official selling price). On Aug 10 Iraq's SOMO set September Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at a -$4.00/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average (vs -$6.50 in August), Basrah Heavy at -$7.30/bbl (vs -$8.80). Each was raised $2.50 / $1.50, the narrowest discount of the year, reflecting stronger seller pricing power as supply tightens.

2. Spot rebate (term discount). On the August basis, term rebates ran $25–29.80 for Medium and $27.80–29.80 for Heavy. With September OSP hiked, that rebate space shrank and the practical discount now shows up as the premium in SOMO's rare spot tender.

3. Loading premium (with transshipment markup). The September tender is FOB Basrah Oil Terminal with Gulf of Oman STS transfer: loading premium ≥$0.20/bbl for 1–10, ≥$3.00/bbl for 11–30. Per Kpler, SOMO sold ~10 Mbbls of Basrah Medium/Heavy for Sep-Oct to Asian buyers at more than Dubai +$10/bbl delivered; STS Fujairah basis cleared around Dubai +$5–8/bbl.

II. Net-to-arrive differential

For Basrah Medium against the Oman/Dubai average M: the OSP basis nets to about M−$4.00, but the September STS tender route carries a delivered premium of M+$10 or more — a gap exceeding $14/bbl between the "listed discount" and the "real landed cost." Heavy sits at M−$7.30 with a similar but deeper structure.

III. Practical notes

  • Hormuz crude flows have fallen from 8–9 Mb/d pre-war to <2 Mb/d (Rystad); only ~10 commercial vessels/day passed in the week of Sep 6 (Kpler), lifting diversion and insurance costs.
  • Chinese refiners (PetroChina, Sinochem, independents) are back in Middle East spot tenders, locking Sep–Nov STS cargoes; China's onshore crude stocks fell to 1,172 Mbbls, with restocking demand supporting differentials.
  • Goldman warns oil could hit $120; BofA sees $95–120, extreme $150; EIA raised its 2026 Brent average to $91.01. Transshipment traders must price in the geopolitical premium and delivery uncertainty.

Sources: SOMO / Argus Media / chemicalsupdates (MidEast Sour Crude Daily) / Kpler / Reuters / Jin10. Some term rebates reflect August known levels; September physical shows as tender premiums. Figures updating — subject to latest.