1. OSP (Asia, November): Per SOMO's Oct 8 release, Basrah Medium is set at a discount to the regional benchmark (Oman/Dubai), versus flat in October; Basrah Heavy widens its discount, tracking Saudi Aramco's November Arab Light cut to defend market share. Spot additional discount (term rebate, FOB): October-loading cargoes carry a deeper FOB rebate versus destination benchmarks than the Aug–Sept range, reflecting freight and war-risk offset. For Basrah Medium: OSP discount plus the spot rebate yields a net FOB price significantly below Oman/Dubai (net ~73–79 USD/bbl, drifting lower with Brent). Heavy carries a deeper net FOB discount. Adding war-risk premium (6%–10% hull, 10–20M USD per VLCC) and STS transfer cost, delivered economics remain well above pre-conflict levels.

3. Hormuz still constrained: Passage remains under pressure amid elevated regional risk; on Oct 13 UKMTO confirmed both a tanker and a boxship struck by projectiles. This watch is market-data interpretation only, not investment advice. Brent/WTI are Oct 18 settles.