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[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium/Heavy Nov OSP Deepens (Medium -2.80, Heavy -5.80); Spot Dark Discount -34~-37; Hormuz Still ~70% Constrained
SOMO set the November Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at -2.80/bbl and Heavy at -5.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai, deeper than October (0.00/-3.30), following Saudi's market-share defense. Recent loading cargoes show FOB spot dark discounts of ~-34.50 (Medium) and ~-37.00 (Heavy). Hormuz transit runs ~82% of pre-war (~11.7 mb/d) with attacks still elevated and war-risk hull premium held at 6%–10%.
2026-10-26· 5 min· By: SNSUC Research Institute
Brent Spot (Oct 24 settle)
116.72USD/bbl
▲ Up
WTI Spot (Oct 24 settle)
103.27USD/bbl
▲ Up
Basrah Medium OSP Diff (Nov Asia)
-2.8USD/bbl
▼ Down
Basrah Heavy OSP Diff (Nov Asia)
-5.8USD/bbl
▼ Down
Spot Dark Discount (recent FOB)
-34.5~-37.00 USD/bbl
▼ Down
Hormuz Crude Flow (Oct avg)
11.7mb/d (~82% pre-war)
— Flat
1. Three-Layer Pricing Breakdown
1. 1. OSP official price: SOMO (Oct 8) set the November Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at a discount to Oman/Dubai; Heavy widened significantly — among the deepest discounts since 2025, following Saudi's November Arab Light to Asia at a record discount, a shared market-share defense. 2. Spot dark discount (term rebate): Recent loading cargoes show FOB dark discounts deeper than historical norms, reflecting Iraq's extra incentive amid geopolitics and fleet constraints. Loading premium +30% mechanism: Non-Hormuz loadings (1–10th ≥0.20, 11–30th ≥3.00/bbl) plus offshore STS transfer lift delivered cost further; some sellers shift to delivered quotes to bypass strait risk.
2. Against the Oman/Dubai average, Basrah Medium FOB nets at a substantial discount; Heavy at an even deeper discount. Adding freight, war risk and STS premium, delivered ICE Brent parity sits at a premium — still the cheapest Middle East sour tier, yet absolute delivered cost is lifted by high Brent and war risk. Hormuz: Passage data unavailable per IMF PortWatch (AIS visibility interrupted since 2026-03-01); Persian Gulf exports remain under heightened scrutiny, while freight and war risk stay elevated. Gulf-to-China VLCC day rates are markedly elevated versus historical levels.
