On September 23, the bitumen front-month settled at CNY 4,898/t, down 4.07% on the day — a far steeper drop than fuel oil's -1.60% (CNY 4,117/t). The spread between the two flipped from fuel-oil premium to bitumen premium of roughly CNY 781/t.

The driver is refinery yield switching. Bitumen's 4.07% slide tracks refiners cutting coking-feed output and holding back residual oil, while fuel oil's milder move shows bonded bunker demand (VLSFO/HSFO) still providing a floor. With road construction entering its winter off-season, bitumen spot offtake slows and the spot-forward basis weakens; warehouses see more receipts pledged against fuel oil than bitumen.

For the re-export desk: re-rate the haircut on bitumen warehouse receipts, and lean toward fuel oil and crude for pledge financing. Calendar spreads (buy near, sell far) carry more risk on bitumen right now and look steadier on fuel oil.