Two green candles at the crude end, but the crack logic did not follow downstream. Brent +1.72% and WTI +1.62%, yet fuel oil barely moved (-0.07 yuan/tonne, essentially noise) while bitumen tracked with +1.67 yuan/tonne. That split tells you refinery run rates and inventory structure are driving the tape, not pure cost push.

Fuel oil's flat print reflects a tight balance in the domestic bonded 380cst market: bonded bunkering and tolling demand hold the floor, but independent refiners have not restarted runs, so buying interest is muted. Bitumen's gain looks like early pricing for seasonal infrastructure demand, with northern paving and southern maintenance orders picking up around October.

Rubber tells a different story. Natural rubber -2.49 and butadiene rubber -1.0 both fell. TSR is pressured by the Southeast Asian peak production season, while butadiene rubber follows softening BD and tire-maker destocking. For traders running the 13 categories, the rubber complex moves opposite to the crude leg, so hedges have to watch both ends.