Brent settled at $99.74/bbl. At USD/CNY 6.7064 and 7.33 barrels per tonne, that puts the landed crude cost at roughly ¥4,900/t. Set against the two main downstream products, the picture splits: bitumen at ¥5,273/t sits about ¥370 above crude, while fuel oil at ¥4,422/t is about ¥480 below it.

One positive, one negative crack tells you where refiners are sending their residue. A positive bitumen crack pulls vacuum residue into asphalt blending; a negative fuel oil crack means selling fuel oil outright loses money unless bonded blending or bunker demand absorbs it. Since early September the bitumen-over-fuel-oil spread has repaired from an inversion to +¥851/t (5,273 minus 4,422), which is the residue switch showing up in prices.

For a transshipment desk this reads better than crude alone. As long as the bitumen crack holds positive, independent-refinery runs and bitumen warrants stay supplied, and the pledgeable volume behind bonded warrants is steady. If the fuel oil crack deepens, refiners cut fuel oil sales and drain tanks, and East China bonded fuel oil quotes tighten.

We track three numbers together — landed crude cost, bitumen crack, fuel oil crack — because that combination flags warrant supply a half-step before Brent moves.