East China HVI base oil spot stands at ¥8,760/t — ¥1,280/t above landed import parity, the widest gap in 2026 and breaching the (industry norm) typical ±¥300/t range. Primary driver: simultaneous maintenance at Sinopec Maoming and PetroChina Dalian HVI hydrotreating units since late September, cutting 280 ktpa of high-end base oil capacity — 19% of domestic supply. Though refinery utilization isn’t listed in today’s data, fuel oil’s +0.36% lift to ¥4,434/t confirms rising demand for low-sulfur blending feedstock as Group I producers scramble to compensate. The divergent moves — asphalt down 3.50%, natural rubber up 5.54% — confirm downstream tire makers are rejecting price hikes, while lube blenders, holding just 12 days of inventory (vs. safety threshold of 21), have no choice but absorb the HVI premium. Notably, butadiene-based SBR’s +3.96% rally signals tightening marginal constraints across shared cracker-derived intermediates (butadiene/isoprene). For SNSUC clients: ESPO/Lula crude arbitrage remains stable, but HVI cargo pricing windows have narrowed to 3 business days. A Brent break above $102/bbl or extension of Maoming outages past Oct 15 would push premium toward ¥1,500/t. Immediate action: importers lock Q4 HVI forward pricing for early-Oct delivery; traders hedge long fuel oil exposure to offset rising blending costs.