The standout on the board today is the split in heavy-oil downstream: natural rubber sits at ¥20,095/t and butadiene rubber at ¥16,000/t, neither giving ground, while bitumen slides from the ¥5,300 area early in the month to ¥5,013. Same feedstock, one pushing up and one down — the end-markets are diverging.

Rubber gets its support from tire-makers' restocking cadence. Semi-steel tire operating rates have not fallen much, overseas replacement demand is intact, and a tight butadiene monomer supply keeps the synthetic grade pinned at the top. Bitumen, by contrast, is seasonal: northern projects are wrapping up, the rush-to-complete demand is ebbing, and refinery inventories are building, widening the cash discount.

For SNSUC's 13-category trade book, this split is both chance and risk. In rubber we move bonded warehouse receipts on both the natural and synthetic lines, and bigger swings actually help turnover; bitumen, a heavy and modified grade, tracks infrastructure sentiment, and now is not the time to build stock — back-to-back short orders fit better.

In execution, do not treat "heavy-oil downstream" as one block. Rubber reads tire and auto output; bitumen reads Ministry of Finance special bonds and project starts. The two need different hedging tools and different payment terms; hedging them together just gets hit on both ends.