The cleanest split on the board today sits in the two heavy-product lines: fuel oil at RMB 4,434/t, up 0.36, barely moved, while bitumen at RMB 5,013/t fell 3.50, the hardest drop in the complex. Both are residue downstream, yet one is supported by bonded bunker supply and the other pressed by the road-construction off-season, so the crack between them naturally widens.

A refiner only has so much residue. From each tonne of crude, the residue can be blended into bonded low-sulfur bunker fuel (VLSFO) to chase international transshipment stems at Zhoushan, or routed to the bitumen unit for road material. Fuel oil not following the drop means bonded bunker bids are still lifting; bitumen down 3.5% means infrastructure and road demand has not returned and traders will not stock road material in the off-season. So more residue is pushed to the bunker side, bitumen units cut runs, and refinery operation tilts toward make fuel oil, not bitumen.

For a reseller the read shows in inventory and freight. Zhoushan bonded bunkering competes for ship slots, which keeps VLSFO spot premium alive and bids up short-haul blendstock — imported straight-run fuel oil and cat slurry. The bitumen off-season loosens residue storage on the road side. On buying cadence, fuel oil suits locking bonded bunker term contracts on dips; the bitumen side should wait for road-restart signals before pricing, and not park cash in a falling market through the off-season.

This split is not a one-day move. As long as bonded bunker volume holds and road work stays quiet, the fuel-oil-strong, bitumen-weak structure persists and refiners keep tilting residue toward bunkers — until winter stocking or an infrastructure pickup pulls bitumen back.