The downstream tape split today. Natural rubber at RMB 20,095/t (+5.54%) and butadiene rubber at RMB 16,000/t (+3.96%) rose together, while bitumen fell alone to RMB 5,013/t (-3.5%). Products from the same barrel moved in opposite directions, which tells you cracking margins are being squeezed on the heavy end and opened on the synthetic rubber end.

Rubber's lift came from plantation weather and tight warehouse receipts; BR followed on unit maintenance plus tight butadiene feedstock. For SNSUC's 13-category dispatch, the listing side for rubber needs an upward revision, while bitumen's delivered cost is easing and suits a longer lock-in.

Fuel oil held at RMB 4,434/t (+0.36%), nearly flat — a contrast with bitumen's drop. The heavy-end chain is not moving in one direction. The job today is not to read bitumen's fall as broad weakness; the rubber side is the exposure to watch.