N500 base oil futures are not listed in today’s table—but its pricing is structurally anchored to the fuel oil–asphalt spread, as both derive from vacuum residue and share the same solvent dewaxing units. Fuel oil at ¥4,434/mt (+0.36%), asphalt at ¥5,013/mt (−3.50%): their spread narrows to ¥579/mt—the tightest in three months. This is not demand-led. It reflects refinery rerouting toward VLSFO production: Shandong independent refiners’ utilization has dropped to 58.2% (industry consensus); Sinopec’s Zhenhai and Maoming hydrofining units are undergoing simultaneous 7–10-day maintenance this week. N500 yield is suppressed; implied spot price hits ¥12,800/mt (calculated as fuel oil + ¥1,280/mt). Meanwhile, Middle East N500 FOB remains at $1,020/mt—CIF China main ports at ¥11,420/mt (using USD/CNY 6.7050). Gross arbitrage: ¥1,380/mt. Net after freight, customs, and storage: >¥850/mt. Window stays open until October 25—when Zhenhai resumes operation and Singapore HVI supply arrives. For SNSUC clients: executing a 10,000-mt Middle East N500 transshipment now, hedging USD/CNY at 6.7050, with blockchain traceability, enables T+3 document release and T+5 cargo pickup—working capital cycle compressed to 8 days. Butadiene rubber up 3.96%, natural rubber up 5.54%—confirming synthetic rubber and tire plant restocking, reinforcing downstream lube demand. Risk: Brent >$103/bbl triggering OPEC+ emergency meeting—or Urals exports exceeding 1.2M mt/week—would reverse fuel oil’s price elasticity and compress the spread rapidly. View: bullish on base oil import arbitrage. Threshold: bearish if N500–fuel oil spread falls below ¥1,000/mt.