The heavy-end chain split sharply on October 13. Bitumen closed at CNY 5,051 per tonne, down 2.11% on the day, as road demand entered its off-season and East China social stocks built for a second straight week. Fuel oil closed at CNY 4,594 per tonne, up 2.73%, with bonded bunker replenishment pulling residue away from the road side.

The refiner's unit switch is blunt: cokers are lowering the residue-to-bitumen yield ratio and steering more residue into the bonded bunker blend pool. The VLSFO discount versus domestic heavy oil has opened to roughly CNY 180 per tonne, enough to cover one Zhoushan anchorage transhipment leg, so plants naturally push marginal output to the bonded side.

For SNSUC's entrepot book, the residue diversion tightens tradable heavy fractions, yet bonded bunker demand floors the price instead of letting it fall like bitumen. On the desk we locked 70% of November fuel-oil term volume and left the rest to play a Singapore discount pullback.

This split will not close quickly in the off-season; refiners trade inventory and unit flexibility for cash flow, and road-side demand recovery waits for next year's construction season.