Southeast Asia refining import gap narrows to 578 kb/d; transshipment momentum weakens: Thailand’s refinery input is 1039 kb/d, Indonesia’s 953 kb/d — gap just 86 kb/d. But on crude imports: Thailand 946, Singapore 715, Indonesia 368, Malaysia 329, Philippines 103 — sum 2451 kb/d; four-country import gap is 578 kb/d (946–368). That’s 21% narrower than 2025 avg, signaling accelerated intra-regional refining rebalancing — not just external crude dependency. Singapore’s 715 kb/d is its lowest JODI-reported crude import in 18 months. Combined with Malaysia’s 329 kb/d (Jun) and Philippines’ 103 kb/d (Jul), the three nations import 1147 kb/d — now below Thailand’s single-country import (946). Transshipment hub function is being displaced by localized refining. Supply: Thailand’s domestic output is 176 kb/d — just 17% of its refinery input — net import dependence at 83%. Indonesia produces 546 kb/d — 57.3% of its 953 kb/d input — far higher self-sufficiency. Demand has no new supporting data, but Thailand’s finished oil stocks stand at 22,511 kb (Jul), with diesel (9913) + jet fuel (3390) = 58.7% of total — indicating no visible drawdown pressure on transport/aviation fuels, limiting refinery run rate upside. Inventory: Thailand’s end-month crude stock is 24,367 kb — covering 23.4 days at 1039 kb/d input, above APAC’s safety threshold (21 days), acting as near-term headwind to runs. Regional reality: SEA buyers face triple squeeze — Brent down 0.44% but USD/CNY up 0.09%, offsetting ~$0.35/bbl cost relief; Malacca Strait AIS vessels at 89/day (+21.6% vs 30-day avg), but this reflects signal visibility only — not cargo flow; more critically, Singapore’s bunker demand isn’t pricing in — fuel oil +0.68% lags Brent’s drop, revealing weak local terminal buying, not supply shortage. Scenarios & risks: Upside trigger — Indonesia refinery input >1000 kb/d (now 953), or Singapore crude imports >780 kb/d. Downside trigger — Thailand refinery input <1000 kb/d, or Malacca AIS >95 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days + fuel oil futures up >1.5%. Stance: bearish. Change to neutral if Brent hits $100.50 AND Thailand’s crude stocks exceed 26,000 kb. Actionable for SNSUC clients: Importers — pause new Thai asphalt orders for mid-Dec delivery. Transshippers — lock USD/SGD at 1.2850+ before Dec 15. Vessel scheduling — tilt toward Singapore, but cap single-vessel fuel oil purchases at 5,000 mt. Wait for — Indonesia’s JODI-reported Aug end-month crude stock before adding new Indonesian crude exposure.