Southeast Asia’s refining role is undergoing structural recalibration: TH (946), ID (368), SG (715), and MY (329) kb/d imports differ by 1,234 kb/d — yet functional weight is non-linear. SG imports 715 kb/d (30.3% of four-nation total) with zero reported refinery input (JODI), meaning all crude serves re-export and bunkering; TH imports 946 kb/d but runs refineries at 1,039 kb/d — a 93 kb/d net drawdown, backed by 24,367 kb end-month inventory (JODI), confirming its pivot to regional blending hub; ID imports 368 kb/d but processes 953 kb/d — a 585 kb/d gap partially covered by domestic output (546 kb/d), implying reliance on unreported stocks or spot top-ups; MY imports 329 kb/d — lowest among four — with no JODI data on refinery input or inventory, highest opacity. On supply: SG’s import volume (715) is 76% of TH’s (946), but zero refining capacity means all crude feeds offshore trade — fuel oil +0.68%, asphalt -1.45%, confirming resilient bunker demand but premature road-construction season fade. On demand: TH’s refinery input exceeds imports by 93 kb/d, and its 22,511 kb total refined products inventory (diesel: 9,913; jet fuel: 3,390) shows active management of diesel/jet supply timing. ID’s 953 kb/d refinery input is 2.59x its 368 kb/d imports — gap coverage depends on 546 kb/d domestic output plus unreported stocks, indicating higher system fragility than TH. On shipping: Malacca Strait AIS visibility at 89 vessels/day (+21.6% vs 30-day avg) signals improved transit efficiency — but AIS count ≠ cargo volume, and impact on import timing lags 3–5 days. Regional reality: SEA buyers face real cost bifurcation — WTI down 0.31% but USD/CNY up 0.09%, pushing RMB-denominated fuel oil up 0.68%; importers’ landed cost rose, not fell. SG-based traders benefit from USD/SGD +0.40%, easing local P&L pressure. TH refiners, drawing down stocks due to input > import, show muted near-term procurement appetite. This isn’t global oil easing — it’s structural rebalancing driven by refining capacity mismatch. Upside trigger: Malacca AIS >95 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days + TH refinery input up 3% MoM → confirms regional hub absorbing Middle East incremental flows. Downside trigger: SG crude imports drop below 650 kb/d in one month OR ID refinery input falls below 880 kb/d → exposes dual pressure on transshipment & refining. Stance: Neutral. Shift to bullish only if Brent breaks $95/bbl AND TH refined products inventory draws at ≥500 kb/week. Actionable for SNSUC clients: ① TH importers pause pricing — resume only after weekly refined inventory release; ② SG re-exporters lock Dec fuel oil futures during technical pullback post +0.68% rally; ③ For ID clients, quote using ‘output-import’ gap model — max premium = Brent × 1.02; ④ All SEA shipments scheduled preferentially during Malacca AIS >85 vessels/day — avoid Lombok Strait (5 vessels/day, below 7-vessel norm).