The evening print has natural rubber at 20,165 yuan/tonne, down 1.71%, and butadiene rubber at 15,900, down 1.03%. Both legs soften, yet NR's premium over BR holds at 4,265 yuan per tonne instead of compressing — the spread widens inside a dual decline. That is a signal of tire makers mispricing relative to their channel inventory.

Butadiene rubber's cost is anchored to butadiene, which has been tight on maintenance, so BR's smaller drop shows synthetic has a cost floor. Natural rubber, with Southeast Asian rainfall easing and Qingdao destocking slowing, falls more cleanly. Tire makers typically price at provincial distributors, whose inventory turns have lengthened; they will not chase rallies nor chase dips, so plate prices stall inside the channel.

For SNSUC's digital warrants and transfer title, dual-soft rubber means loan-to-value on rubber-backed collateral should step down a notch, and a widening NR/BR spread flags hedgers adding cross-grade positions. When we watch warrant pickup rights, the channel inventory mismatch deserves a discount factor of its own, not just visible exchange stocks.