N500 Group II base oil ex-works East China at ¥6,270/t vs. import landed benchmark ¥5,450/t — spread widens to +CNY820/t, highest since Q3 2026. (Industry norm) Three major East China refineries (Zhenhai, Jinling, Gaoqiao) underwent combined maintenance of >18 days in early-mid October, cutting N500 output by ~23%. Import substitution is now operationally viable: Singapore FOB N500 at $895/mt (≈¥6,110/t @6.6870), but landed cost including freight, customs, and warehousing reaches ¥6,380–6,450/t — pushing end-users toward domestic high-spec supply. Fuel oil futures at ¥4,947/t (+3.71%) confirm rising heavy-feedstock costs: N500 production relies on vacuum gasoil/deasphalted oil, tightly correlated with fuel oil (0.87 YTD 2026). Asphalt at ¥4,454/t (-0.36%) weakens on off-season road demand — no spillover to base oil. Natural rubber at ¥19,890/t (-0.08%) and BR at ¥15,935/t (-0.25%) both decline, confirming no formulation elasticity from synthetic rubber chains into lubricant blending. USD/CNY at 6.6870 (-0.05%) eases FX hedging urgency for importers; yet EUR/CNY (+0.08%) and EUR/USD (+0.19%) signal persistent Eurozone energy inflation, underpinning European export pricing. For SNSUC clients: transshipment traders can execute ‘imported bonded feedstock → blending → offshore sale’ within FTZ, avoiding VAT and consumption tax; importers should fix November cargoes below ¥6,300/t — refinery restarts scheduled for Oct 25, and supply re-entry will compress spot premium. View reversal trigger: spread narrows to ≤+CNY500 for 3 consecutive days.