Paraffin futures at ¥7,280/t (-2.30%), petroleum coke at ¥2,910/t (+1.82%); spread hits ¥4,370/t — widest YTD inversion. This cracking spread has breached the industry-accepted sustainable range (¥3,200–¥3,800/t), signaling structural misalignment in heavy-oil downstream processing: crude distillation unit utilization holds at industry-norm levels, but paraffin refining units operate at reduced rates while delayed coking units run at elevated loads. Concurrent weakness in fuel oil (¥4,852/t, -2.12%) and asphalt (¥4,445/t, -0.11%) confirms refiners are actively cutting paraffin output and boosting coke yield for near-term margin capture. On exports, CNY/USD at 6.6810 (-0.06%) offers mild FX tailwind, yet FOB China main port paraffin quotes have fallen to $1,025/mt — down $110/mt from September’s peak; meanwhile, FOB Qingdao petroleum coke stands at $385/mt (+3.2%), supported by POSCO’s October incremental order and Indonesia’s tightened export quota. Inventory data validates divergence: East China paraffin commercial stocks rose week-on-week; North China coke port stocks fell week-on-week. Demand-side: paraffin lighting export orders down 22% YoY in Q4 (GACC preliminary release, Oct), food-grade wax tender prices breached ¥7,100/t amid biobased substitution pressure; coke benefits from early winter procurement by Shandong & Inner Mongolia aluminum smelters — October purchases up 18.5% m/m, with ‘low-sulfur calcined coke’ still eligible for 13% VAT rebate under export list. For SNSUC clients: paraffin import price-locking windows are closed — new orders advised against; petroleum coke transshipment should prioritize Qingdao port off-take + blockchain carbon footprint tagging, commanding ¥120/t premium. Key reversal triggers: Brent > $112/bbl or paraffin weekly inventory growth >60,000 mt.