Paraffin price at ¥3,650/ton (+1.42%), hitting a three-week high, and the export window has materially opened. Based on current Brent at $110.122/bbl, fuel oil at ¥4,922/ton, and USD/CNY at 6.6748, the FOB export price for paraffin reaches $728/ton — $18/ton below comparable cargoes in Busan, Korea. Combined with RCEP origin certification enabling zero tariffs in Vietnam and Indonesia, 42,000 tons of Southeast Asian orders have been secured for November shipments. This is driven by two factors: first, the Brent–fuel oil spread narrowed to $22.1/bbl (previously $23.9), lifting paraffin cracking gross margin to ¥410/ton (industry consensus breakeven: ¥360/ton); second, the domestic candle export season started earlier than usual, with the EU’s anti-dumping duty exemption transition period for Chinese candles expiring on 15 November, triggering concentrated restocking demand. In contrast, petcoke shows strong supply but weak demand: no active futures contract is listed, yet inventory rates at major East China bonded warehouses rose to 87%, and port congestion pressure in East China is evident — primarily due to low aluminum smelter operating rates and slower anode carbon procurement; meanwhile, Russian Urals coke arrivals increased month-on-month, with Q4 contracts already fixed at 380,000 tons. Structurally, the petcoke–bitumen spread widened to ¥1,120/ton (bitumen at ¥4,543/ton; median petcoke transaction price at ¥3,423/ton), indicating weakening downstream formulation substitution intent. Key risks include: if Brent falls below $108/bbl, paraffin cracking margin may slip below breakeven; if aluminum smelters resume operations faster than expected in November, petcoke drawdown could outpace the current model forecast of -7,000 tons/week. For SNSUC clients: paraffin exporters are advised to lock FX immediately and quote on FOB basis, leveraging CIPS for direct EUR settlement to hedge USD volatility; petcoke importers should defer replenishment and await inventory inflection signals in early November.