Brent−WTI spread widens to $7.61/bbl — the widest since October 18, 2026. This directly impacts import economics for heavy intermediate cuts: widening Brent premium erodes cost advantage of Brent-linked heavy crudes (e.g., ESPO, Urals), while WTI-linked US base oil components (e.g., HVGO, DAO) see a temporary arbitrage window open. Fuel oil futures rise +0.68% to ¥4,312/t, diverging sharply from asphalt’s −1.45% to ¥4,489/t — signaling blender demand shifting toward high-sulfur fuel oil, a telltale sign of base oil producers accepting lower-grade feedstocks during refinery maintenance season. JODI confirms structural deficit: China’s refinery throughput is 13,247 kb/d vs domestic crude output of just 4,353 kb/d — import dependency stands at 67%. Singapore’s crude imports are only 715 kb/d, just 6.2% of the combined total for China, Korea, Japan and India — regional transshipment erosion forces end-users toward direct sourcing. Korea’s refinery throughput is 2,977 kb/d with zero domestic production; Japan’s is 2,349 kb/d with only 3 kb/d output — neither has base oil self-sufficiency. Asphalt price weakness reflects waning road-construction demand and refinery maintenance-driven feedstock reallocation: some vacuum residue previously used for asphalt blending is now diverted to hydroprocessing units for base oil production, indirectly lifting fuel oil procurement demand. USD/CNY rises to 6.6763, modest RMB depreciation dampens import cost pass-through but fails to offset structural substitution momentum. For SNSUC clients, locking in FOB USGC HVGO cargoes offers ~$8.2/t theoretical arbitrage vs Middle East DAO (based on Brent−WTI spread and freight model back-calculation). We recommend initiating 3–6 month FOB USGC basis purchases if WTI holds above $90/bbl. A narrowing of Brent−WTI spread below $6.0/bbl would materially slow substitution pace.