US Gulf crude export scheduling has decoupled from throat-traffic optics—Yucatan Strait AIS visibility at 30 ships/day exceeds both 30-day avg (28.53) and historical norm (23), but this counts AIS-tracked vessels, not cargo tons, port dwell time, or loading efficiency. The real constraint is JODI-reported US crude imports of 6.71 MMbpd in Aug 2026: up 9.3% vs 2025 avg, and sustained for 4 straight months in 6.6–6.8 MMbpd range—confirming structural reliance on imported medium-sour crudes (e.g., Mexican Maya, Canadian WCS) by USGC refiners, squeezing arbitrage-driven exports. On supply: US domestic output at 13.85 MMbpd vs refinery input at 17.40 MMbpd → 3.55 MMbpd import gap. Canada’s output (4.46 MMbpd) vs input (1.29 MMbpd) implies 3.17 MMbpd theoretical export capacity, yet pipeline constraints and QC timelines prevent timely response to USGC loading windows. On demand: US Aug 2026 total refined product stocks = 591.7 MMbbl; fuel oil stocks = 22.4 MMbbl (3.8% of total)—lowest among 7 categories—indicating LSFO import substitution remains underdeveloped, locking in crude import structure. North American buyers face dual squeeze: USD/CAD at 1.4128 (+0.81%) lifts CAD-denominated landed cost; WTI-Brent spread at $7.61/bbl (97.85−90.24) pushes Asian buyers toward Middle East & West Africa, eroding USGC spot pricing power. Mexico reported no Aug import data, but its Jul 2026 refinery input (1.217 MMbpd) vs output (1.674 MMbpd) implies 0.457 MMbpd theoretical export surplus—yet absent from major USGC load ports, revealing persistent intra-regional friction. Upside trigger: Yucatan AIS visibility >33 ships/day for 3 consecutive days + WTI-Brent spread ≤$6.20/bbl → USGC export scheduling elasticity may rebound. Downside trigger: US Sep JODI crude imports <6.50 MMbpd OR USD/CAD >1.4300. Current stance: bearish. Shift to neutral if WTI breaks $88.50/bbl OR US monthly imports drop >3% MoM. SNSUC client actions: ① Importers: pause WTI-based pricing; wait for $88.50 support test. ② Traders: halt USGC→Singapore vessel bookings—high Yucatan count ≠ loading assurance. ③ Hedge: initiate 50% forward USD/CAD purchase at 1.4200. ④ Wait for: Mexico’s Aug JODI import data before assessing short-haul US-Mexico cross-Gulf opportunities.