USGC crude export scheduling has materially accelerated: Yucatan AIS vessel count hits 30/day — up 5.2% vs 30-day avg — but this reflects only AIS-tracked vessels, not cargo tonnage or loading volume. US refinery input stands at 17,400 kb/d vs domestic output of 13,850 kb/d (79.6% self-sufficiency); the 3,550 kb/d gap must be filled by imports. Of reported crude imports (6,709 kb/d), ~52% (~3,500 kb/d) is structurally locked into closing that gap — leaving limited true export headroom. Canada’s refinery input (1,286 kb/d) is dwarfed by its output (4,461 kb/d), giving strong net export capacity — yet its成品油 inventory is just 55,448 kb, only 9.4% of the US total, implying weak local absorption and high transshipment reliance. Mexico’s refinery input (1,217 kb/d) vs output (1,674 kb/d) implies a theoretical surplus of 457 kb/d — but with no reported crude imports or ending stocks, its export reliability remains unverifiable. North America focus: The USGC is not an ‘excess export hub’ — it’s an ‘import-dependent processing nexus’. WTI-Brent spread is 7.69 USD/bbl (98.99−91.30), theoretically favoring USGC-to-Europe arbitrage — yet US gasoline inventory (157,374 kb) and diesel (79,896 kb) together account for 40.1% of total成品油 inventory (591,678 kb), sitting at mid-high historical levels; refiners lack incentive to further increase runs. USD/CAD at 1.4061 (+0.33%) also erodes Canadian crude competitiveness into the USGC. For SNSUC clients sourcing fuel oil or asphalt feedstock from the USGC: fuel oil futures rose +1.35% to ¥4,341/t while asphalt fell −1.21% to ¥4,500/t — widening crack spread inversion signals persistent road-construction seasonality pressure on asphalt, but resilient power/ bunkering demand underpinning fuel oil — making fuel oil loading windows more reliable than asphalt. Upside trigger: Yucatan AIS count ≥32 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days AND WTI-Brent spread >8.50 USD/bbl. Downside trigger: US crude imports drop >300 kb/d w/w OR Yucatan AIS count falls below 25 vessels/day for 3 days. We hold ‘neutral’ — scheduling acceleration is already priced in, but physical export ceiling remains capped by import rigidity. A WTI break below $89.50 would signal shale producer cutbacks and shift supply structure. Actionable for SNSUC clients: ① Fuel oil pricing window is open — scale in at ¥4,320–4,350/t; ② Pause asphalt procurement until social inventory drawdown evidence emerges or front-month contract breaks ¥4,450/t; ③ Lock FX on CAD-denominated contracts now — USD/CAD has cleared 1.406; ④ Even with high Yucatan counts, build +3-day buffer into vessel scheduling to avoid hidden demurrage costs.