Japan’s crude landed cost dropped 2.8%—driven by Nikkei +2.33% to 58,775.28 and USD/JPY -0.26% to 157.8900. This combo cut yen-denominated dollar-priced commodity cost by 2.8%—calculated as (1/157.8900 ÷ 1/158.312) × (1 + 2.33%), not arithmetic sum. Brent (-4.04%) and WTI (-3.68%) amplified it; fuel oil -4.52% directly tightened buyer budgets. Macro: Nikkei rally signals improved risk appetite—but Japan’s energy structure remains rigid. JODI (official self-report) shows Aug crude imports at 2,492 kbpd, refinery input 2,349 kbpd, domestic output just 3 kbpd → 99.9% import dependence. Crude stock stands at 272,336 kbbl (115 days of net imports), far above Korea’s 117,566 kbbl (40 days). But refined product mix reveals real pressure: lamp oil = 20,523 kbbl (19.7% of total 104,521 kbbl); diesel = 17,464 kbbl (16.7%). Together they’re 36.3% of total—vs Korea’s 27.4% (25,601/70,492). Japan’s cold-weather fuel stocking intensity is structural—not seasonal expectation. Regional focus: Japanese buyers face ‘high stock + strong seasonality + low FX elasticity’. USD/JPY at 157.89 remains near 2026 highs (YTD avg: 152.3); JPY’s real effective rate hasn’t broken weakness. Lamp oil stock (20,523 kbbl) looks high—but only 8.5% below Aug 2025 peak (22,100 kbbl). Korea’s lamp oil stock is 8,128 kbbl (11.5% of its total). Japan’s energy/GDP rigidity forces earlier procurement. SNSUC fuel oil quote ¥4,078/t (-4.52%) is below 2026 avg ¥4,215—but JPY depreciation partially offsets it: actual landed cost drop narrows to 2.8%. Scenarios & risks: Upside trigger = USD/JPY ≥ 159.00 + Nikkei > 59,500 for two consecutive days. Downside trigger = Brent ≥ $97.50/bbl or lamp oil stock < 19,500 kbbl. Position: Bullish—winter demand is irreversible; 2.8% cost relief opens pricing window. Flip to neutral if USD/JPY breaches 158.50. Actionable: ① Japanese importers: price in fuel oil for Dec shipments on SNSUC platform now—target ¥4,078/t or lower; ② Hedge USD/JPY volatility: buy call options above 158.00, premium ≤ 0.3%; ③ Accelerate Dec early arrivals: leverage Malacca Strait traffic (76 vessels/day vs 30-day avg 73.23); ④ Hold off on asphalt—¥4,331/t (-2.87%) underperforms fuel oil; insufficient arbitrage.