EU-7 crude import structure is widening: Germany (1,529 kb/d) + Italy (1,225 kb/d) = 2,754 kb/d — 36.5% of total 7,535 kb/d. Netherlands (1,100 kb/d) and UK (666 kb/d) imported 67 kb/d and 240 kb/d less than their refinery throughputs (1,033 and 906 kb/d), forcing drawdowns from already thin inventories — 33,357 kb (NL, 32 days cover) and 16,892 kb (UK, 18.7 days cover), vs Germany’s 131,776 kb (86.7 days). Spain (1,356 kb/d) matches its 1,296 kb/d throughput; France (1,013 kb/d) slightly exceeds 991 kb/d; Norway (44 kb/d import) runs on 1,895 kb/d domestic output — a net exporter. Supply: Mandeb Strait AIS visibility at 14 vessels/day (below 30-day avg 9.2, but not trade collapse); Bosporus at 16 (below avg 14.37) — both signal gaps, not flow stops. Suez (19), Gibraltar (34), Cape of Good Hope (19) all normal or above. Demand: DAX +0.93%, CAC40 +0.60% — no hard consumption signal. EUR/USD +0.52% adds ~0.5% USD-cost burden, fully offset by Brent’s -3.94% drop. Reality for buyers: Germany/Italy hold pricing power; Netherlands/UK face urgent restocking but gain hedge room from lower Brent. Locking Brent at $94.44 gives €84.37/bbl at 1.1193 — clear arbitrage vs unreported Aug German import cost. Upside trigger: Brent ≥ $97.50 for 2 consecutive days → delays buying. Downside trigger: Mandeb AIS <10 vessels/day for 5 days OR Bosporus <12 vessels/day → extends ARA arrival lead time & widens premiums. Stance: Bullish, but only within $94.00–$95.20. Flip to neutral if Brent breaks $93.80. SNSUC client actions: ① DE/IT importers fix spot Brent at $94.20–$94.60 now; ② NL/UK traders lock EUR/USD at 1.1180–1.1200; ③ All EU clients pause vessel scheduling post-Nov 15 — await Nov 18 JODI inventory update; ④ Hedge with asphalt (-3.14%) and fuel oil (-4.47%) CNY contracts.