Brent futures spiked +3.47% to $95.98 — the largest single-day external premium over domestic Brent ($95.74, -0.08%) since November 2026, with a $0.24/bbl basis gap. WTI futures rose +0.02% to $88.755, while domestic WTI fell -0.31% to $88.47 — deepening the divergence. This is not a liquidity blip: Brent’s gain was the strongest among all energy assets that day, coinciding with broad equity selloffs — Nikkei -0.70%, Hang Seng -1.26%, CSI 300 -0.67%, and SZSE -1.68% — confirming a coordinated risk repricing. The Dollar Index edged up to 103.1954 (+0.03%), and EUR/USD held at 1.1052 (+0.01%), ruling out broad USD strength as driver. The real catalyst is geopolitical risk repricing: Brent’s surge reflects an immediate market upgrade in probability of Red Sea–Persian Gulf shipping disruption. JODI data shows Saudi refinery input at 2,297 kb/d (output 6,238 kb/d), inventory at 143,197 kb — neutral — but Singapore crude imports at just 715 kb/d, among the lowest regional hub levels. Concurrently, fuel oil (+2.50%) and asphalt (+2.66%) rallied sharply, signaling elevated demand expectations for low-sulfur marine fuel and refining intermediates. Macro conditions show no new shocks: U.S. natural gas rose +0.08%, gold fell -0.12% — no inflation or safe-haven spike; S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all declined between -0.35% and -0.39%, indicating synchronized correction, not collapse. For SNSUC clients, this premium has already raised landed cost on Brent-priced transshipment cargoes — especially ESPO, Urals, Basrah Light — undermining CNY-denominated forward purchase contracts. If Brent futures hold above $95.80 for two consecutive days, lock FX and freight premium hedges immediately on unpriced December-loading ESPO spot. Downside trigger: Brent futures fall below $94.20 for three consecutive days, or WTI–Brent spread widens beyond $7.50.