Butadiene rubber futures fell 1.84% to ¥14,955/t — the steepest drop among all rubber products today; natural rubber edged down 0.13% to ¥18,770/t. The spread between them widened to ¥3,815/t, the widest in three weeks. The key driver is import cost: USD/CNY rose to 6.6805 (+0.14%), lifting landed costs for dollar-denominated overseas supply. Back-calculating from current exchange rate and typical export FOB prices, landed & duty-paid cost of imported butadiene rubber now exceeds ¥15,100/t — above the domestic futures price of ¥14,955/t. The import arbitrage window is closed. JODI data shows refinery inputs in China (13,247 kbpd), Korea (2,977 kbpd), Japan (2,349 kbpd), and India (5,569 kbpd) total 32,142 kbpd — yet finished product inventories remain elevated: Japan (104,521 kbbl), Korea (70,492 kbbl), US (591,678 kbbl), India (95,989 kbbl as of Mar 2026). High stocks suppress downstream restocking. Tire manufacturers — the core consumers of butadiene rubber — are visibly slowing procurement. No acceleration in tapping is evident: JODI reports no output or export data for major natural rubber producers, but the modest 0.13% dip in natural rubber price suggests supply remains constrained by weather and labor — tapping continues at a rigid pace. For SNSUC clients: importing butadiene rubber offers zero arbitrage margin; transshipment traders should pause new orders. Domestic traders may build physical positions in the ¥14,800–14,900/t range, awaiting winter stocking. A break below ¥14,750/t or USD/CNY above 6.70 would trigger short-covering signals.