Southeast Asia’s crude import gap narrows to 102 kb/d — transshipment momentum has materially shifted to Thailand’s refineries. Singapore + Malaysia’s combined crude imports stand at 1,044 kb/d (JODI Aug/Jun), but neither reports refinery input. Indonesia imports 368 kb/d yet runs refineries at 953 kb/d — covered by domestic output of 546 kb/d — confirming its refineries rely on local crude for base feed, with imports used only for blending and quality adjustment. Thailand imports 946 kb/d but processes 1,039 kb/d — a 93 kb/d surplus — proving it operates as a net crude transshipper: receiving ESPO/Ural cargoes and allocating part to domestic units, part to secondary markets like Myanmar and Cambodia. Supply side: Singapore’s 715 kb/d import (JODI Aug) lacks refinery input data; its fuel oil futures +1.96% and prior-reported tankage pressure signal physical constraints — not demand strength. Indonesia’s 953 kb/d refinery input vs. 368 kb/d import and 546 kb/d output confirms structural reliance on domestic crude. Demand side: Thailand’s refined product stocks total 22,511 kb (Jul 2026), with diesel (9,913 kb) and jet fuel (3,390 kb) comprising 59% — aligned with infrastructure rollout and air travel recovery. Meanwhile, IDX -0.21% and KLCI -0.55% reflect muted end-user appetite in Indonesia and Malaysia. USD/THB +0.09% implies modest THB depreciation — less cost pressure than in MYR or IDR zones. Regional specificity: Global average import gap is ~18% of intake (industry norm); SEA’s 102 kb/d is just 4.2% of 2,451 kb/d — far below benchmark. SEA is no longer a ‘global secondary buffer’ but a ‘nearshore processing node’. For SNSUC clients: Singapore arbitrage windows tighten; Thailand offers faster price response, better vessel scheduling, and 24,367 kb of reported crude inventory (Jul) — a 12-day cushion unmatched by non-reporting nations. Scenarios & risks: Upside trigger — Malacca Strait AIS count hits 82 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days (current 79, +8.9% vs 30-day avg). Downside trigger — Thailand’s refinery input falls below 1,000 kb/d (now 1,039), or Brent-WTI spread widens beyond $6.50/bbl (now $5.54). Stance: Bullish. Flip to neutral if Thailand’s weekly crude imports drop below 900 kb/d for two weeks straight, or Singapore fuel oil futures break below ¥3,980/t. Actionable recommendations: ① Initiate ESPO/Basrah Light crude pricing for Thailand-bound shipments now; ② Delay Singapore fuel oil purchases until futures fall below ¥4,020/t; ③ Launch naphtha-asphalt cross-hedge for Indonesian clients — refinery input is high but refined stocks unreported; asphalt demand is more verifiably inelastic; ④ Lock THB forward before USD/THB breaches 33.80.