Among the thirteen tracked categories, the energy and rubber lines closed green together today. Fuel oil at CNY 4,063, bitumen at CNY 4,295, natural rubber at CNY 19,525 and butadiene rubber at CNY 15,540 all moved up. Crude looks like the common driver, but the breakdown diverges.

The heavy-oil chain tracks crude closely. Fuel oil rose 2.09% and bitumen 1.63%, yet the crack spread did not widen in the same proportion, which means part of the gain is cost pass-through rather than independent demand strength. Refinery runs and warehouse-receipt flows are the real underlying variables here.

The rubber chain runs on a different clock. Natural rubber gained 1.72% and butadiene rubber 2.34%; butadiene's elasticity clearly exceeds that of natural rubber because marginal butadiene feedstock supply is shorter-cycle than natural rubber's regional weather. Hedgers should not share one delta curve across both chains.

For procurement scheduling, watch refinery runs and freight on the heavy-oil side, and plant maintenance and regional crop conditions on the rubber side. Blending the two into a single commodity-sentiment gauge will book the wrong direction at roll.