The rubber complex split sharply. Natural rubber closed at 19,530 yuan/t, up 1.75% on the day; butadiene rubber closed at 15,535 yuan/t, up 2.30%. On the surface BR looks stronger, yet the NR-over-BR premium actually widened to 3,995 yuan/t — BR's larger percentage gain is diluted by its far lower absolute price, so on a premium basis natural rubber still leads.

BR's strength traces to butadiene. Maintenance and tight supply on the butadiene side keep a floor under cost, while natural rubber faces different drivers — producing-region weather and arrival timing — without a matching inventory loosening. Distinct logics on each side are exactly what sustains the split.

Tire makers respond by rebalancing blend ratios and hedging. When natural rubber is dear, they lift the synthetic share to cap cost, and use point pricing to lock part of future procurement exposure rather than chase the market one-way. If channel inventory runs high, the price pass-through stalls and margin stays trapped between plant and distributor.

Two lines deserve attention: the butadiene maintenance-recovery pace, which decides whether BR cost can ease, and the natural rubber arrival and Qingdao destocking speed, which decides whether the premium keeps widening. Both feed back into the blend decision and the hedge book.