SNSUC上海新壳联化工有限公司
SNSUC Research · Research · Industry Insight
Thailand’s成品油库存 at 22,511 kbbl — slowest drawdown in ASEAN
Thailand’s Jul-2026成品油 inventory stands at 22,511 kbbl — the only ASEAN nation reporting full-category stock data. Diesel dominates (9,913 kbbl, 44% of total), signaling infrastructure-driven hoarding and lagging downstream demand. Drawdown pace lags behind Indonesia/Singapore’s implicit restocking rhythm.
Thailand成品油 inventory
22511千桶
— Flat
Thailand diesel inventory
9913千桶
— Flat
Indonesia refinery input – crude imports
585千桶/日
▲ Up
Malacca Strait vessel count
79艘/日
▲ Up
Thailand’s成品油 inventory at 22,511 kbbl is the highest absolute level reported across ASEAN — and the only nation disclosing full-category stocks in JODI (Jul-2026). Diesel dominates at 9,913 kbbl (44% of total), exceeding jet fuel (3,390), gasoline (742), and naphtha (899) combined — confirming infrastructure-driven hoarding, not consumer demand. In contrast, Indonesia (refinery input 953 kbpd vs crude imports 368 kbpd) and Singapore (crude imports 715 kbpd, no inventory reported) show implicit restocking via processing surplus. Philippines reports only 103 kbpd crude imports — zero inventory disclosure — indicating extreme reliance on spot shipments and minimal buffer. USD/THB at 33.77 (+0.09%) lifts import cost pressure, yet high stocks suppress spot buying urgency. USD/SGD at 1.2844 (+0.04%) keeps Singapore’s local procurement bills manageable — supporting its bunker-driven restocking resilience. Macro divergence: IDX +0.95% outpaces SET (+0.39%) and KLCI (-0.50%), signaling faster domestic demand recovery in Indonesia — widening inventory drawdown differentials. ASEAN is not a monolith: Thailand = static ballast; Indonesia = dynamic refill; Singapore = turnover reservoir. For SNSUC clients: Thailand’s high stocks cap near-term upside for asphalt/fuel oil — but widen forward pricing windows; Indonesia’s refinery run rates lift export premiums on base oil/paraffin; Singapore traders are front-loading Dec LSFO cargoes to hedge against Ma’lakha congestion risk (79 vessels/day, +4.9% vs 30-day avg). Upside trigger: SET index holds above 1,520 for two consecutive weeks AND Thai diesel stocks fall >120 kbbl/week — confirms real infrastructure fuel burn. Downside trigger: USD/THB breaches 34.00 OR Ma’lakha AIS drops below 72 vessels/day — forces emergency Thai stock release and price cuts. Stance: Neutral. Reversal threshold: Thai diesel stocks drop >180 kbbl/week OR Singapore fuel oil futures premium exceeds ¥4,050/t. For SNSUC importers: Pause spot asphalt purchases in Thailand; shift to Dec forward pricing (currently +1.23%, but capped by inventory overhang). For transshippers: Lock USD/THB below 33.85; schedule Lombok Strait voyages for early Dec (8 vessels/day, historical norm 7 — safe margin). For rubber-chain buyers: Butadiene rubber +2.54% already prices in ASEAN tire-factory restocking — take partial profit above ¥15,700/t.
