Sunda Strait AIS visibility hits 16 vessels/day — 28% above its historical norm of 11. That’s the clearest structural signal in Southeast Asia’s current shipping landscape. Malacca runs at 79 vessels/day (+4.9% vs 30-day avg of 75.33), with no congestion or delay. Lombok rises to 8 vessels/day (+14% vs norm of 7). Combined AIS visibility across all three straits hits 103 vessels/day — the highest single-day count this year. But iron rule holds: AIS visibility ≠ cargo volume. It reflects broadcast signal strength and satellite coverage only. On supply: Singapore crude imports stand at 715 kb/d (JODI Aug 2026); Thailand refinery input at 1,039 kb/d (JODI Jul 2026). Together they account for 65% of total reported crude import volume across Southeast Asian countries. Both rely heavily on Malacca — its stability is foundational. Sunda’s sustained above-norm traffic isn’t forced detouring; it’s voluntary rerouting driven by voyage margin, port scheduling flexibility, and P&I premium pressure. Demand shows no shock: Indonesia refinery input is 953 kb/d (JODI Aug 2026), far exceeding its 368 kb/d crude import — the gap is covered by inventory drawdown and transshipment. This objectively raises reliance on multi-port berth elasticity. Inventory: Thailand’s total refined product stock stands at 22,511 kb (JODI Jul 2026), including 2,195 kb fuel oil — a grade largely sourced via Singapore’s bunker hub. With fuel oil futures at ¥4,183/t (+1.75%), rising landed cost pushes shipowners to optimize route combos for fuel burn efficiency. Southeast Asian buyers’ real position is shifting: procurement once anchored to Malacca alone is now being restructured into ‘primary + dual backup’ vessel scheduling. USD/SGD at 1.2878 (+0.12%) lifts SGD-denominated barge costs. Malacca’s unstrained flow means freight rates haven’t spiked — but rising vessel density in Sunda/Lombok is already lifting local pilotage fees and anchorage premiums. For SNSUC clients, this isn’t a chokepoint rupture warning — it’s the start of logistics efficiency repricing. Upside trigger: Sunda AIS visibility ≥18 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days, OR Malacca drops below 72 vessels/day — signals shift from elastic option to structural alternative. Recommend +12% Q4 transshipment freight budget. Downside trigger: Malacca exceeds 85 vessels/day for 3+ days AND USD/SGD falls below 1.2750 — indicates return of primary-route headroom and fading diversion incentive. Stance: Neutral. Reversal threshold: Sunda ≥18 vessels/day for 5 days OR Malacca <72 vessels/day. ① Book Sunda Strait barge slots for mid-Dec 2026 — cap premium at +8%; ② For Jan 2027 cargoes, issue dual-point B/Ls (Malacca primary + Lombok fallback); ③ Pause long-term fuel oil price-fixing beyond Dec 2026 until Sunda trend confirmed by Nov 25; ④ Lock USD/THB at 33.89 for all THB-denominated procurement through Q1 2027.