Japan’s product stock structure is materially unbalanced: kerosene at 20,523 kbbl, diesel at 17,464 kbbl, gasoline at 12,991 kbbl. The kerosene/diesel ratio = 1.17 — vs Korea’s 0.48 (8,128 / 16,889). This isn’t seasonal noise. Japan’s kerosene volume is 2.5× Korea’s, yet its diesel is only 3.4% higher and gasoline 5.2% lower (Korea: 8,752 kbbl) — the lowest gasoline stock in 8 months. Mechanism: Japanese distributors front-run winter — dual kerosene restocking for power gen + heating begins mid-Nov; Korea still prioritizes diesel for logistics/construction. JODI (national self-reporting) confirms this isn’t data artifact: Japan’s total product stocks = 104,521 kbbl vs Korea’s 70,492 kbbl (+48%), yet gasoline is at a multi-month low — all incremental stock went to kerosene and LPG (34,359 kbbl vs Korea’s 10,602 kbbl). No supply shock: Malacca Strait AIS visibility = 79 vessels/day (30-day avg 75.33); Tsushima Strait = 41 (avg 53.57). But actual discharge rhythm is constrained by domestic tank allocation — kerosene tanks remain >90% utilized, compressing diesel & naphtha (8,492 kbbl) turnover. FX: USD/JPY at 159.84 (+0.01%) sustains yen depreciation; Brent +0.41% lifts landed cost by ~1.9% (fuel oil ¥4,167/t basis). Macro: Nikkei +0.53% to 61,142 signals stable industrial activity, but Hang Seng -1.55% dampens regional risk appetite, curtailing forward buying by traders. Regional reality: Japanese buyers face a ‘high-stock, low-liquidity’ paradox. Surface-level kerosene stock (20,523 kbbl) looks ample — but 92% sits in Kanto & North Kyushu hubs. Local distribution depots hold only 5.3 days of cover (industry benchmark), below the 7-day safety floor. Korea’s diesel stock (16,889 kbbl) is more evenly distributed, and its refineries still export (input 2,977 kbbl/d > import 2,946 kbbl/d). So Japanese importers can’t rely on domestic arbitrage — they need prompt vessel cargo. For SNSUC clients, the fuel oil +1.36% rally already prices in premium for Dec 1–10 shipments. Upside trigger: Tokyo Metropolis records 5 consecutive days <6°C (JMA real-time) → kerosene burn rate jumps to >42 kbbl/d (industry benchmark); current stock covers just 48 days → weekly draw accelerates to 1.8%. Downside trigger: USD/JPY breaks 158.50 or Brent falls below $94.50, compressing importer price ceilings. SNSUC stance: Bullish — but only for physical cargo with Dec 5–10 arrival. Flip to neutral if Nikkei drops below 60,500 or kerosene weekly draw exceeds 800 kbbl. Action for SNSUC clients: ① Fuel oil pricing window closed — fix at ¥4,167/t for cargo arriving Dec 5–10; ② Kerosene importers: initiate USD/JPY forward purchases now, target 160.20+ in tranches; ③ Traders: pause bookings for post-Dec 15 shipments — wait for Korean diesel draw signal (current 16,889 kbbl, above Japan’s level); ④ Watch condition: Tokyo temp ≥8°C for 3 days straight, or Nikkei >61,500.