Japan’s kerosene stocks at 20,523 kbbl vs diesel at 17,464 kbbl — a 3,059 kbbl gap, the widest in 2026 and first time exceeding the winter-switch threshold (kerosene/diesel > 1.15). This isn’t lagging demand — it’s confirmed procurement: end-users are front-running cold weather. JODI shows Japan’s crude imports at 2,492 kbbl/d and refinery inputs at 2,349 kbbl/d — just 143 kbbl/d headroom. Total refined product stocks stand at 104,521 kbbl, with kerosene at 19.7%, diesel at 16.7%, gasoline at 12.4% — structural tilt is locked in. Supply rigidity: domestic crude output is 3 kbbl/d — 99.9% import-dependent. Malacca Strait: 79 vessels/day (+4.9% vs 30-day avg); Tsushima Strait: 41 vessels/day (-23.4% vs 30-day avg). AIS counts ≠ cargo volume — they only reflect visible vessel timing. No systemic chokepoint disruption, but Tsushima’s dip hints at localized short-haul delays. Demand is hard: kerosene stock level alone — not MoM/YoY — is flagged as seasonal-normal by JODI, meaning no warning is issued. FX adds cost: USD/JPY at 159.66 (+3.5% vs 2026 avg of 154.2), USD/CNY at 6.6726, and fuel oil futures up +3.04% in CNY — landed kerosene cost up ~2.1%. Regional reality: Japan is the only advanced economy using kerosene as primary winter heating fuel. Korea’s kerosene stock is 8,128 kbbl (39.6% of Japan’s); China didn’t report kerosene stock to JODI. No regional arbitrage possible. Japan’s crude inventory stands at 272,336 kbbl — covering 115 days of refinery input (2,349 kbbl/d), neutral-to-tight. But kerosene-specific stocks are now in ‘procurement countdown’. Upside trigger: Nikkei > 62,000 + USD/JPY ≥ 161.00 → forced forward pricing. Downside trigger: weekly kerosene stock jump > 800 kbbl (i.e., > 21,300 kbbl) → topping signal. Stance: Bullish. Flip to neutral if USD/JPY < 157.50 or kerosene stock falls below 19,800 kbbl. Action for SNSUC clients: ① Price kerosene futures within next 7 days — execute today; ② Hedge all Dec-delivery kerosene payments targeting USD/JPY 158.20–158.80; ③ Cluster vessel arrivals in early Dec — avoid Japan’s port-wide maintenance from Dec 20; ④ Pause diesel forward buying until kerosene stocks stabilize between 20,000–20,800 kbbl.