US crude self-sufficiency hits 79.6%; refinery throughput rigidity has fully locked import flexibility. Supply: US domestic production stands at 13,850 kb/d; refinery input at 17,400 kb/d → self-sufficiency = 13,850 ÷ 17,400 = 79.6%, the highest in 2026 per JODI (national self-reporting). Every 100 barrels processed requires only 20.4 barrels of external supply. Imports at 6,709 kb/d are not discretionary — they fully cover the physical deficit, with zero room for reduction. Canada produces 4,461 kb/d and processes 1,286 kb/d, implying theoretical net export capacity of 3,175 kb/d — yet its 606 kb/d imports signal structural light-component or blending demand, constraining actual exportability to the US. Mexico produces 1,674 kb/d and processes 1,217 kb/d (net export potential: 457 kb/d), but its total refined product inventory is just 18,032 kb (July 2026), dwarfed by US+CA’s 647,126 kb — revealing weak downstream distribution, not export readiness. Demand: No new refinery capacity is online. All refinery input figures reflect rigid, non-adjustable operation. US refined product stocks stand at 591,678 kb (August 2026); fuel oil is only 22,389 kb (3.8% of total) — the lowest regional share; diesel at 79,896 kb and gasoline at 157,374 kb confirm strong mid-distillate absorption but saturated heavy-end capacity. Canada’s 55,448 kb total includes just 2,218 kb of fuel oil (4.0%), reinforcing the same structural bias — locking in demand for medium-sour crudes, not enabling import cuts. Regional focus: USGC spot premiums are forming. WTI–Brent discount widened to $7.38, yet US imports did not rise — proving price is no longer the binding constraint. The real choke point is physical refinery throughput ceilings. For SNSUC traders, USGC vessel scheduling now follows refinery production plans — not price signals. USD/CAD at 1.4269 lifts landed cost of CAD-denominated crude; simultaneous DXY strength at 103.41 suppresses Asian dollar-buyer bids, indirectly boosting USGC FOB pricing power. Scenarios & risks: Upside trigger — WTI > $92 AND Henry Hub < $3.40 → marginal refinery margin improvement may prompt modest throughput lift → slight import uptick. Downside trigger — US crude inventory jumps >15,000 kb w/w (current: 565,444 kb) → reveals hidden accumulation → import quota reallocation risk. Stance: bearish on import window. Reversal threshold: WTI closes below $87.50 for three consecutive days OR US imports fall MoM. Actionable advice: ① Pause USGC FOB price calls; shift to ESPO/Dubai physical benchmarking; ② For clients already committed to USGC cargoes, execute forward FX purchase vs. USD/CAD at 1.4200; ③ Align vessel loading schedules strictly with Houston’s weekly port plan — not daily price moves; ④ Watch for: US crude stocks <555,000 kb AND WTI–Brent spread ≤ $6.00.