The most telling move today was the tempo gap. Fuel oil jumped 3.04% to 4,236 yuan a tonne and butadiene rubber rose 2.97% to 16,280, both running fast. Bitumen barely moved, up 0.87% to 4,413, and natural rubber gained 0.79% to 19,710 — half a beat behind.

This split has shown up before across SNSUC's 13 categories. The heavy-oil block — fuel oil and bitumen — tracks crude and bunker demand, while the rubber block — natural and butadiene — leans more on tire-plant operating rates and feedstock at the synthetic side. Two separate drivers produce two separate curves.

For clients running hedges, applying one spread model to every category distorts the book. Fuel oil benchmarks against Singapore 380CST; rubber follows the Shanghai front month. Their correlation is low, so hedge ratios must be set independently.

Our member weekly separates the 13 items into an 'energy chemicals' group and a 'rubber and tires' group, each with its own basis and inventory level. This week the energy group shows tight stocks and spot premiums; the rubber group has steady export orders but ample feedstock — the two conclusions point opposite ways.

The takeaway: stop treating all categories like one position. Pull them apart and the trade becomes clear.