Asphalt peak season is ending—no surprises: front-month ¥4,748/t down three weeks, East China utilization cut to 62.3% (3-mo low), social drawdown slowed from 1.8%/wk to 0.9%/wk. Import landed cost ¥62–92/t below domestic; arb window shut. Contractors draw down inventories, traders skip forward builds.

On Sep 1, bitumen futures stood at CNY 4,934/t and fuel oil at CNY 3,788/t, widening the spread to CNY 1,146/t — the highest since Jan 2026 (+5.1% w/w). Key drivers: East China asphalt plant utilization rose to 68.3%, while low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas tightened and Singapore’s ARA stockpiles fell 2.1%. We recommend immediate bitumen procurement to lock in refining margin window.