Panama Canal AIS-visible transits fell to 11 vessels/day (vs. 12 normal); US crude imports at 6,709 kb/d and refinery inputs at 17,400 kb/d imply net export capacity of just 3,691 kb/d; USGC loading schedules now delayed by 1–2 weeks. North American buyers face slower arrivals; traders must fix vessels 7 days ahead.

WTI-Brent spread narrows to $8.73/bbl, below 30-day avg of $9.12; US crude imports at 6,709 kb/d vs refinery inputs at 17,400 kb/d → net import dependency just 38.5%; Panama Canal AIS vessel count at 11/day — no bottleneck. Arbitrage-driven US Gulf exports to Asia are losing traction.

Yucatan Strait: 30 vessels/day (30-day avg 28.53, historical norm 23); Panama Canal: 11 vessels/day (30-day avg 11.87, norm 12); AIS counts show no chokepoint stress. JODI shows US crude imports 6,709 kbpd, output 13,850 kbpd — ample net export capacity. Fuel oil +2.13%, asphalt +3.34% — consistent with stable USGC loading cadence.