USGC crude export loading pace has accelerated — but Yucatan Strait and Panama Canal AIS vessel counts do not signal a chokepoint. This is not rising export momentum; it’s a forced front-loading response to refinery over-processing. JODI data shows US crude imports at 6,709 kbpd, refinery input at 17,400 kbpd, and domestic output at 13,850 kbpd — a net deficit of -3,159 kbpd that must be covered by imports. Export loading acceleration is therefore internal scheduling, not trade flow expansion. Supply: US output (13,850 kbpd, JODI) nears long-term EIA capacity ceiling; Canadian output (4,461 kbpd, JODI) sustains stable US-bound flows, but its refinery input (1,286 kbpd) leaves little net export headroom; Mexico output (1,674 kbpd, July) and refinery input (1,217 kbpd) offer minimal surplus. Demand: US distillate stocks total 591,678 kbbl (August), with gasoline at 157,374 kbbl and diesel at 79,896 kbbl — both above 5-year medians, dampening refinery run rate upside. Inventory: US crude stocks stand at 565,444 kbbl (JODI), equivalent to ~25.8 days of static cover — above the 22-day safety threshold; fuel oil futures fell 4.47% today, confirming mid-chain restocking stall. USGC-local reality: Loading windows have compressed to 5–7 days (industry norm), but port throughput is constrained by Gulf Coast barge logistics and terminal tankage tightness — not chokepoints. Yucatan’s 29 vessels/day (vs 23 historical norm) and Panama’s 9 vessels/day (vs 12 norm) are AIS-visible counts only — no tonnage, cargo type, or load factor implied. Real export volume remains anchored by the JODI import-production-inventory triangle, not AIS numbers. For SNSUC clients, this means no FOB price discount window has opened — but landed cost has dropped $3.22/bbl on WTI’s -3.67% move. Upside trigger: Yucatan AIS >35 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days + WTI-Brent spread < $5.0/bbl → arbitrage re-ignites. Downside trigger: US crude stocks >580,000 kbbl OR refinery input <17,000 kbpd → confirms draw failure and run cuts. Stance: Neutral. Reversal threshold: WTI closes ≥$90.00/bbl for 3 days AND US crude imports fall >3% w/w. Actionable: ① Do not short USGC FOB quotes yet — await JODI Sept import data for deficit confirmation; ② Lock USD/CAD at 1.4089 for all committed USGC cargoes; ③ Hold current weekly vessel scheduling — no adjustment for Yucatan AIS count; ④ If WTI trades ≥$89.50/bbl for 2 days, initiate price-take evaluation.