US crude self-sufficiency has risen to 79.6%, but refinery over-run creates a hard import floor—not discretionary demand, but physical shortfall. Supply: US domestic output is 13,850 kb/d vs. refinery input of 17,400 kb/d, leaving a 3,550 kb/d gap that must be filled externally. Current imports stand at 6,709 kb/d — nearly double the gap — confirming reliance on imported light crudes (e.g., Basrah Light, Bonny Light) for blending and upgrading, not just volume top-up. Canada produces 4,461 kb/d but consumes only 1,286 kb/d in refining — stable net exporter. Mexico produces 1,674 kb/d, refines 1,217 kb/d — also net exporter. Combined North American export capacity totals 12,876 kb/d, yet US alone imports 6,709 kb/d — proof of structural quality dependence. Demand: Refinery input of 17,400 kb/d is the highest JODI-reported level in 2026, up from 17,120 kb/d in July (implied trend), signaling post-maintenance full utilization. Of total refined products inventory (591,678 kb), gasoline accounts for 157,374 kb (26.6%), diesel 79,896 kb (13.5%), fuel oil only 22,389 kb (3.8%) — highlighting downstream bias toward light distillates and weak heavy-fraction absorption. This directly maps to the -2.48% drop in domestic asphalt futures and -0.21% in fuel oil. Regional reality: North American buyers face a squeeze — WTI flat but DXY up +0.67%, lifting landed cost; meanwhile, Gulf Coast ports show no congestion (Yucatan: 29 vessels/day, Panama: 9), yet import rigidity persists. Unlike Europe’s 72% diesel stockpile concentration in Germany/Netherlands/Spain amid weak demand, US gasoline stocks are high in absolute terms but fast-turning — pressure lies in fraction mismatch, not headline volume. SNSUC clients sourcing FOB USGC must track crude import composition, not just WTI-Brent spreads. Scenarios & risk: Upside trigger is WTI > $92.50/bbl (+1.84%), confirming margin-driven run-rate expansion. Downside trigger is US crude imports < 6,500 kb/d (-3.1%), indicating real blending demand erosion. Stance: neutral — shift bearish only if imports fall below 6,600 kb/d for two consecutive months or refinery input declines MoM. Actionable: ① Lock light-crude pricing window for Dec laycan (WTI $90.83, Brent $97.93, $7.10 spread still open); ② USD/CAD at 1.4121 with compressed volatility — lock FX now; ③ Avoid fuel oil vessel bookings before Dec — US fuel oil stocks at 22,389 kb, near top end of seasonal range; ④ Monitor Dec JODI for first-ever Mexican crude import report — if >0, signals new refining capacity, potentially diverting USGC re-export flows.