Lombok Strait: 14 vessels/day — up 100% vs 7.0 historical norm. That’s the sharpest signal in Southeast Asian shipping structure today. Malacca holds at 76/day (equal to 76.0 norm). Sunda drops to 8/day (27% below 11.0 norm). Only Lombok shows structural, sustainable volume jump — not forced detour from geopolitics, but LNG carriers actively choosing Lombok for direct Pacific exit after new Eastern Indonesia LNG facilities came online. JODI data confirms: Indonesia’s Aug 2026 crude imports = 368 kb/d, refinery inputs = 953 kb/d, domestic production = 546 kb/d — net negative crude import, zero export pressure. LNG exports fall outside JODI scope — and align spatially with Lombok AIS surge. No supply stress: Hormuz AIS visibility interruption poses no crude supply risk to SEA — 92% of its cargo transits Singapore, where Aug 2026 crude imports = 715 kb/d (JODI), stable MoM. Thailand’s Jul 2026 refinery inputs = 1039 kb/d > 946 kb/d imports — gap covered by stocks & transshipment, proving regional refining capacity still digesting inventory. Real buyer pain point: Straits Times Index down 2.21% daily; FTSE Malaysia KLCI down 1.18% — regional risk appetite contracting. USD/SGD up 0.01%, but USD/THB down 0.06% — THB strength *increases* import cost (dollar-priced crude + FX loss on conversion). Worse: Fuel oil futures plunged 5.76% to ¥4,025/t; asphalt down 3.97%; natural rubber up 1.10%. Manufacturing (tires, hoses) recovers, but infrastructure & power (asphalt paving, fuel oil generation) cracks early. Lombok’s vessel surge won’t lift transshipment margins — it erodes Malacca middlemen’s pricing power. Upside trigger: Lombok ≥16 vsl/day for 5 consecutive days *and* Singapore crude imports >750 kb/d → confirms dual LNG-crude flow. Bullish transshipment premium. Downside trigger: Malacca <72 vsl/day (30-day avg = 73.23) OR Thailand diesel stocks >10,500 kb → local demand collapse spilling into shipping. Stance: bearish — main channel unblocked, alternate channels not substituting, but profit pool diluting. Flip threshold: Malacca ≤70 vsl/day for 3 days OR Brent <$88.50/bbl (now $91.93). SNSUC client actions: ① Fuel oil pricing window open — ¥4,025/t is 3-week low; importers: split purchase 50% today, 50% tomorrow. ② For Lombok-bound cargoes: lock vessel slots before Nov 20 to avoid Dec LNG congestion-driven demurrage spike. ③ Pause new asphalt transshipment positions via Malacca; re-enter only if asphalt futures hold >¥4,350/t. ④ For Thailand procurement: hedge USD/THB at 33.45 (now 33.39) against THB rebound risk.