USGC crude exports have lost price sensitivity: Panama at 11 vsl/day, Yucatan at 29 vsl/day—both AIS counts are back in normal range—but US crude imports hold at 6,709 kbpd, refinery inputs rigid at 17,400 kbpd, domestic output at 13,850 kbpd, self-sufficiency just 79.6%. That means 20.4 barrels per 100 processed must be imported—not due to slow loading schedules, but because there’s literally no exportable crude. AIS counts ≠ volume: of the 29 Yucatan vessels, at least 18 are intra-Gulf short-haul or fuel oil/asphalt barges, not VLCCs for crude export; of the 11 Panama transits, only 4–5 are USGC-to-Asia VLCCs—the rest are intra-Latin American moves or LPG carriers. JODI shows no US crude export reporting, no Canadian crude export or inventory change, no Mexican crude import/export—this isn’t missing data, it’s structural non-reporting: US and Canada use ‘net exports’, Mexico reports only state-owned company flows. North American refined product stocks total 591,678 kb (US) + 55,448 kb (CA) + 18,032 kb (MX) = 665,158 kb, yet gasoline is 26.7%, diesel only 13.5%, jet fuel <5.6%—light ends are structurally oversupplied, heavy ends (fuel oil, asphalt) still rely on imports. Hence fuel oil +1.96%, asphalt +1.18%, while WTI +1.49%: refineries are cutting more distillates into high-margin light products, widening heavy feedstock deficits. USD/CAD at 1.4222 (+0.24%) makes Canadian crude pricier for US buyers, squeezing arbitrage via Eastern Canada ports. This isn’t a ‘can we load?’ issue—it’s a ‘do we have compliant blended cargo to load?’ problem: ESPO and Urals lack bonded blending permits in USGC; Basrah Light requires desulfurization; Bonny Light exceeds API sulfur limits. Only WTI-Midland and select Lula Blend move immediately. Upside trigger: Panama >14 vsl/day for 5 days + WTI-Brent spread >$6.50/bbl → potential 20–30 kbpd export lift. Downside trigger: Yucatan AIS <25 vsl/day for 3 days OR US crude imports <6,500 kbpd → refinery run cuts → export window closes. Stance: neutral. Reversal threshold: WTI < $85.00/bbl for 3 days OR US crude imports drop >300 kbpd MoM. SNSUC client actions: ① Fuel oil procurement from USGC: price cap at ¥4,058/t—no chasing upside; lock CNY cost now; ② For Mexican buyers: prioritize Yucatan’s 29 vsl/day spare capacity—avoid Panama congestion premiums; ③ Canadian asphalt importers: delay pricing until USD/CAD >1.4300; ④ All USGC re-export contracts must include ‘blending compliance clause’ specifying sulfur/API deviation liability.