Brent holds above $101 at the flat price, but the real pricing signal sits in the calendar spread (near vs far month). With OPEC+ holding cuts, the near-month backwardation discounts inventory holders; meanwhile ESPO, Dubai and Oman spot premiums in Asia are diverging by arrival timing, as India's and China's buying rhythms fall out of sync.

Reliance and IOC sweep ESPO and Lula, lifting the Asian light-sweet premium; USD/JPY and USD/KRW both fall, easing Northeast Asian dollar procurement cost as ESPO and Oman premiums diverge.

Brent at $97.48 and WTI at $92.34 leave a $5.15 Brent-WTI spread. With Middle East sour curbs expected, Indian refiners are shifting purchases to ESPO, Lula and other replacements, repricing the Asian premium.