Today's tape took "crude down, downstream split" to the extreme. Brent and WTI each dropped $2.10, but the fuel oil front-month rose 3.04% to ¥4,608/t while bitumen fell 1.59%, natural rubber 2.29% and butadiene rubber 2.34%.

Fuel oil's counter-move traces back to heavy-resid cracking margins. Autumn refinery turnarounds trimmed supply, and early stockpiling for bonded bunker demand lifted physical premiums. Bitumen turning down signals that road-construction offtake has not kept pace and the basis is softening.

Both rubber ends fell together — a synthetic-and-natural resonance. Butadiene rubber was dragged by softer feedstock butadiene monomer, while natural rubber is stuck behind high tire-maker inventories and slower procurement. Across SNSUC's thirteen categories, the heavy-oil chain and the rubber chain now need two separate pricing logics; one crude quote cannot cover both.