At the 7 November close, fuel oil printed 4,312 yuan, up 0.68; bitumen 4,489 yuan, down 1.45; natural rubber 18,605 yuan, essentially flat; and butadiene rubber 15,525 yuan, up 0.91. The four did not move together, which tells you the heavy-products chain and the rubber chain are hanging off different drivers.

Fuel oil tracks VLSFO bunker demand and Russian export quotas. Bitumen is capped by the domestic road-construction off-season. Natural rubber follows Southeast Asian tapping rounds and tyre-plant operating rates. Butadiene rubber moves with its butadiene feedstock. SNSUC 13 core categories cannot be squeezed onto one curve.

In practice the listing formula crude times FX times 7.33 times grade applies to the crude-linked family only. Rubber and bitumen need their own spot-basis discounts rebuilt. Watching the two chains separately prevents a single-category move from being read as a market-wide signal.