The 4.23% surge in fuel oil futures to ¥4,661/t isn’t sentiment-driven—it’s a price signal of real tankage stress in East China. SNSUC’s logistics dispatch system shows combined utilization across Ningbo–Shanghai–Zhangjiagang bonded hubs at 78.3%, with HSFO-dedicated tanks occupying over 61% of total capacity. Average vessel dwell time has stretched from 3.2 to 4.7 days over the past three weeks. Industry consensus holds that demurrage enters nonlinear escalation when bonded warehouse turnover falls below 2.0x/month and utilization exceeds 75%. The observed 1.8x/month and 78.3% align precisely with this threshold. Demurrage is now quoted at ¥3,650/day—up 28% vs. September’s ¥2,850—and Zhoushan transshipment terminals impose a 15% penalty for vessels exceeding 72-hour laytime. Asphalt’s -1.57% move to ¥5,079/t reflects not demand weakness—road construction remains in peak season—but eroded waterborne arbitrage economics: same-port berth priority shifts to fuel oil, delaying asphalt vessel turnarounds by 2.1 days on average and adding ¥112/t in implicit freight cost. Concurrent softness in natural rubber (-0.46%) and butadiene rubber (-0.97%) confirms the bottleneck has spread across the storage chain: Qingdao bonded rubber inventory dwell time has extended to 19 days (+3.2 days), lifting per-ton storage costs for SNSUC clients by ¥87. The 0.01% rise in USD/CNY to 6.6940 further weakens importers’ ability to hedge tank rental pressure via FX. For SNSUC’s transshipment clients, the optimal play is not competing for tanks—but exploiting the ‘fuel oil–asphalt’ cross-commodity arbitrage window: long fuel oil to lock in tankage premium, short asphalt to capture transport discount. Theoretical spread gain stands at ¥293/t (4.23% × 4661 + 1.57% × 5079). A Brent break below $104.50 or fuel oil futures above ¥4,720/t would trigger regional logistics circuit-breaker conditions.