Southeast Asia’s total refined products stocks stand at 22,511 kbbl (Thailand, JODI Jul 2026), the region’s only verifiable inventory anchor. Gasoil (9,913 kbbl), jet fuel (3,390 kbbl), and kerosene (3,504 kbbl) jointly account for 74.8% of the total — forming the backbone of rigid regional demand. Yet the structure reveals dislocation: gasoil share is 44.0%, well above ASEAN’s typical ~35% diesel consumption weight in transport fuels (industry convention), suggesting non-road stockpiling or distribution friction. Asphalt futures fell -1.21% to ¥4,500/t — directly contradicting seasonal road-construction acceleration, confirming delayed project ramp-up. Thailand’s SET Index dropped -2.16%; STI fell -2.21%. This reflects weakening domestic demand sentiment — not FX noise (USD/THB rose only +0.27%). No supply pressure emerges: Singapore imported 715 kbbl/d crude (JODI Aug), but reported no refined stocks or refinery throughput — precluding assessment of re-export or bunkering flow. Indonesia’s refinery input was 953 kbbl/d, yet its refined stocks were unreported — making output-to-market efficiency unverifiable. Malaysia and Philippines reported zero refined product data. Regional supply transparency is broken. Demand faces dual constraints: First, Thailand’s gasoil overhang coexists with just 742 kbbl gasoline (3.3% of total), pointing to weaker private mobility recovery vs. freight. Second, jet fuel’s 3,390 kbbl implies ~11 days’ static cover (based on JODI-derived avg monthly aviation fuel use), yet Jakarta Composite rose +0.40% — revealing structural demand mismatch that cannot offset Thailand’s softness. Regional spotlight: cost pass-through has failed. Implied CNY/SGD = 6.6762 / 1.2812 = 5.211, up 0.99% vs. 2025 avg (5.16), yet fuel oil futures rose +1.35% while asphalt fell -1.21% — crack spreads diverged. Importers aren’t restocking en masse. Not lack of demand — lack of conviction amid stagnant draws. SNSUC clients face a real squeeze: diesel cargoes scheduled for mid-December arrival will hit tanks already above normal fill levels — raising demurrage risk. Asphalt spot windows have opened on price pullback, but downstream willingness remains muted. Bull trigger: Thai gasoil stocks fall below 8,500 kbbl in Dec data, or asphalt futures close below ¥4,380/t for three consecutive sessions. Bear trigger: SET drops >3.5% weekly, or Malacca Strait AIS transits fall below 65 vessels/day (30-day avg: 73.2). Stance: Neutral. Reversal threshold: Next JODI reports Thai gasoil ≤8,600 kbbl, or asphalt posts single-day loss ≥-2.0% alongside fuel oil falling ≥-1.5%. Actionable for SNSUC clients: ① Pause new diesel price fixings until Thai JODI update on Dec 5; ② Test asphalt spot demand with capped orders: ≤500 mt/vessel; ③ Hedge all SGD-denominated payments immediately — execute if USD/SGD breaches 1.2850; ④ Halt new vessel slots to Malaysia & Philippines pending their next refined products JODI report.