Base oil SN150/SN500: import substitution meets bonded-receipt financing
Domestic Group II/III capacity trims import reliance while crude and FX reshape landed cost; bonded digital receipts compress working capital for base oil traders.
SNSUC Research · Category archive
Domestic Group II/III capacity trims import reliance while crude and FX reshape landed cost; bonded digital receipts compress working capital for base oil traders.
With cross-chain recognition on the Zhongzheng platform, banks can re-verify receipts and skip paper title confirmation; pushing the title fingerprint upstream cuts pledge funding to T+0, and a 5kt bonded natural-rubber receipt worth about 963 million CNY lifts turnover from 9x to above 10x.
Bitumen up 1.92, butadiene rubber up 1.15, natural rubber up 0.42, fuel oil flat; drivers differ, so one average fits none.
The heavy-oil chain moved out of step tonight. Bitumen at 5,366 yuan per tonne rose 3.11% to lead; fuel oil at 5,391 yuan per tonne eased 0.81%. Refiners are reallocating residue between coking and bonded bunker blending, and both the crack and inventories are being reshuffled.
Digital receipts carry a SHA-256 fingerprint at title creation; banks fund against a reproducible hash, pulling pledge from T+3 to T+0, freeing turnover on a ¥95.85m NR cargo from 9x to 10x-plus.
Fuel oil at 5,362 yuan/t down 2.06% and bitumen flat at 5,107; natural rubber eases to 19,165 and butadiene rubber ticks to 16,790. The two curves run on separate engines.
Fuel oil rose 2.13% to 5,418 yuan/tonne; the HSFO-VLSFO spread is widening again on winter bunker restocking. For scrubber-fitted owners, per-voyage fuel savings are back in the range that justifies the retrofit.
Base oil import parity bottoms on Brent and the exchange rate; with Brent at $110.04 and USD/CNY 6.6613 the USD landed cost eases, and Botavia's 100-tonne SN150/SN500 trial through Long Beach extends the lubricant line into North America.
Fuel oil and bitumen rose together while natural rubber led a slide and butadiene rubber flattened; the book now runs two quoting formulas.
Natural rubber traded at 19,340 yuan per tonne, down 1.15% on the day, while butadiene rubber held at 16,800, up 0.45%. The spread between the two narrowed to 2,540 yuan per tonne, exposing a mismatch between tire makers' pricing and distributor inventory and reopening room for synthetic blend ratios.
Natural rubber at CNY 19,310/t (-1.3%) compresses the NR-BR spread to CNY 2,560/t, opening a recipe window; bonded digital receipt pledge moves T+3 to T+0, freeing CNY 96.55m on 5kt rubber and lifting turnover above 10x.
Fuel oil +2.08% and bitumen +3.29% led; natural rubber rose just 0.82% against butadiene rubber's 3.32%, signalling weak tire-maker uptake of costly NR.
Natural rubber +0.64%, butadiene rubber +0.43%, NR–BR premium widens from ¥2,920 to ¥3,060; a firm yuan lightens dollar-denominated NR cost.
Natural rubber fell 1.5% while butadiene rubber rose 0.67%, narrowing the NR–BR premium to ¥2,920 as tight butadiene turnarounds held BR's floor.
Brent 110.194 and a firm USD/CNY 6.6675 cut SN150/SN500 import landed cost; the Botavia Energy 100 MT trial to Long Beach tests bill-of-lading verification and dollar settlement.
Fuel oil +2.83% and bitumen +4.79% lead the heavy-oil chain higher, while natural rubber sheds 1.63% and butadiene rubber adds 1.83%. Two curves move on different clocks on the same screen; the thirteen categories cannot be read off a single benchmark.
Shanghai fuel oil held at ¥5,295/t as bonded VLSFO bunkering demand stayed steady and Zhoushan chased transshipment tonnage. Methanol and LNG are moving into bonded bunkering, intensifying multi-fuel competition against HSFO and reshuffling bonded versus domestic heavy-oil balances.
Base oil (SN150/SN500) import parity tracks Brent closely. With Brent at $110.503 and USD/CNY easing to 6.6683, dollar-quoted base oil cargoes translate into lower CNY cost. The CNY side of SNSUC's 100-ton SN150/SN500 trial order to Botavia gets more room to breathe.
Fuel oil up 5.31% and bitumen up 4.96% move together; natural rubber slips while butadiene rubber gains 2.82%, splitting the rubber family.
Butadiene (BR) settled at 16,170 RMB/t, +1.51%, outrunning natural rubber (NR) at 19,700, +0.43%. The NR-BR spread narrowed to 3,530 RMB/t from above 3,800. Tight butadiene supply is the main driver behind BR's strength, and tire makers are rebalancing blend ratios against spread hedging.
Fuel oil at 5,349 RMB/t, +6.38%, was the only category to jump over 6% today, driven by bonded bunker-fuel (VLSFO) restocking as international transshipment vessels concentrate at Zhoushan. Tightening spot supply intensifies the fight for residue between domestic coking and bunkering.
Fuel oil at CNY 5,349 (+6.38%) and bitumen at CNY 4,766 (+3.61%) led gains, while natural rubber CNY 19,700 (+0.43%) and butadiene rubber CNY 16,170 (+1.51%) barely moved. The 13 categories split into a heavy-oil curve and a rubber curve that should not share hedges.
Fuel oil at ¥5,349/t rose 6.38% on the day, far outpacing bitumen's 3.61%, widening the FO-BIT spread to ¥583/t. Delayed-coking feed economics flipped and winter VLSFO bonded-bunker stocking combined, while T+0 warehouse-receipt pledge frees working capital to absorb the swing.
Fuel oil and bitumen rose while rubber held flat; the two chains run on different drivers, so the 13 categories split into a crude-crack line and a rubber-synthetic line.
Fuel oil at ¥4,911/t rose 2.4%, outpacing bitumen at ¥4,533/t at 0.53%; the split came from bonded bunker restocking against road off-season demand. Zhoushan is competing for international transshipment slots, and its VLSFO premium to Singapore has narrowed.
Natural rubber at CNY 19,530/t (-0.53%) and butadiene rubber at CNY 15,730/t (+0.80%) push their spread back to CNY 3,800; recipe substitution plus bonded digital-receipt pledging lifts turnover from 9x to above 10x.
Fuel oil rose while bitumen fell; natural and butadiene rubber both eased, splitting the 13 categories into two camps with distinct drivers.
Natural rubber at 19,640 yuan (+0.03%) and butadiene rubber at 15,605 yuan (0.0%) both sit pinned to the floor, with the NR-BR gap holding at 4,035 yuan. Looser butadiene supply is pulling BR cost down, letting tire makers quietly raise the synthetic blend ratio while using the USD/CNY 6.676 conversion window to smooth dollar-denominated natural-rubber costs.
Fuel oil closed at 4,747/t CNY (-1.02%) and bitumen at 4,472/t CNY (-0.82%). Both fell, yet fuel oil moved back above bitumen, flipping the FO-BIT spread from -579/t CNY at the month's start to +275/t CNY. Feeding fuel oil into delayed cokers becomes less economic, and the marginal supply of petroleum coke and paraffin shifts with it.
Fuel oil gave back 2.29% while bitumen rose 1.75% on its own; both rubbers hugged the floor. The two chains run on different drivers and hedges must be split.
Natural rubber held at 19,865 yuan/t while butadiene rubber fell 2.0% to 15,685 yuan/t; the NR–BR spread widened to 4,180 yuan/t, prompting tire makers to lift synthetic blend and adjust hedges.
Fuel oil closed at 4,982 yuan per tonne, up 0.5%, and bitumen at 4,488 yuan, up 0.85% — both residue lines moved higher together, reversing the earlier "fuel oil strong, bitumen weak" split. Independents are reallocating residue between coking and bonded bunker blending, and the crack is widening.
Once bonded natural-rubber digital receipts connect to the Zhongzheng platform and cross-chain mutual recognition, pledge lending moves from T+3 to T+0. On 50,000t of rubber at ¥19,865/t, that is ¥993m of goods value and a working-capital turnover lift from 9x to above 10x.
Fuel oil at 4,986 and bitumen at 4,488 both firmed, natural rubber edged to 19,865, but butadiene rubber fell 1.78% to 15,720. Within the 13 categories, the heavy-oil complex and the synthetic-rubber complex trace two separate curves.
Butadiene rubber fell 2.31% to lead the slide while natural rubber slipped only 0.48%; the NR-BR gap widened from 3,855 in the morning to 4,125. Tire makers shift compound, traders lock stock on bonded warehouse receipts to hedge pricing exposure.
Fuel oil up, bitumen down; natural rubber flat, butadiene rubber up slightly. The two chains run on different drivers, so the data panel now shows them on separate channels.
Zhoushan's bonded bunker volume chases international transshipment laycan; methanol and LNG enter the bunker list, and multi-fuel metering and traceability standards decide next season.
LPG sits in SNSUC's thirteen-category book as a non-hazmat line, imported in dollars. With USD/CNY at 6.687 — yuan about 0.7% firmer on the day — the CNY cost of delivered propane eases, lightening the feedstock pressure on PDH (propane dehydrogenation) units.
Natural rubber front-month printed ¥19,890/t (−0.08%) and butadiene rubber ¥15,935/t (−0.25%), holding the NR-BR spread at ¥3,955. With both soft, the economics of tyre-blend substitution reopen; bonded digital warehouse receipts pledged at T+0 free up working capital, and a 50kt NR parcel worth about ¥995m can be recycled.
Fuel oil's front month rose 3.71% to ¥4,947/t while bitumen eased; natural and butadiene rubber both slipped. Two chains inside one complex moved opposite.
Fuel oil up 3.71%, bitumen off 0.36%; natural rubber down 0.08%, butadiene rubber down 0.25%. The two chains diverge and the crack spread widens at both ends.
Taking natural rubber as the case, a 5,000-ton bonded receipt carries about 99.7 million yuan of value. Batch-level SHA-256 browser-side fingerprints move title confirmation ahead of delivery; bank pledge funding drops from T+3 to T+0 and turnover multiples rise from 9x to above 10x.
Fuel oil rises 3.4 to 4,807 and bitumen adds 0.54 to 4,473, while natural and butadiene rubber both fall, a clear split between chains.
NR and BR both fall, yet the spread widens; channel inventory stalls price transmission.
Bitumen built stocks and fell 2.11% while fuel oil replenished and rose 2.73%; refiners split residue between bonded bunkers and roads.
Brent and WTI each fell $2.10, yet fuel oil rose 3.04% to ¥4,608/t while bitumen, natural rubber and butadiene rubber all dropped — refining cracks and rubber demand are on separate tracks.
Four key contracts diverged sharply today: fuel oil +2.0%, bitumen −1.13%, natural rubber +3.76%, butadiene rubber +2.6%. High-amplitude contracts suit basis trading and receipt-backed financing; low-amplitude, steady-trend contracts suit fixed long-term pricing. SNSUC's data backbone across thirteen categories makes that screening concrete.
Fuel oil rose while bitumen fell, and both rubber grades gained; SNSUC keeps thirteen categories in two books — energy-heavy-oil and rubber-polymer — to stop a blended average from hiding the signal.