SE Asia’s five-country crude imports total 2,451 kb/d; refinery inputs just 1,966 kb/d. Yet Thailand’s input (1,039) exceeds its imports (946) by 93 kb/d; Indonesia’s gap is 585 kb/d (953 vs 368). Processing gravity shifts to Thailand & Indonesia. Fuel oil +3.04%, butadiene rubber +2.97% — local deep-processing and downstream elasticity both strengthening.

US crude self-sufficiency (production/refinery input) hits 79.6% — a 2026 high per JODI; imports at just 6,709 kb/d are the sole gap filler, yet fully inelastic. Canada’s net export capacity is strained; Mexico’s refinery input remains below output. SNSUC importers must brace for USGC spot premium spillover.

USGC crude exports have zero elasticity—Panama Canal AIS visibility at 11 vessels/day (30-day avg 12.17), yet US refinery input at 17.4M bpd vastly exceeds domestic output of 13.85M bpd, locking imports at 6.709M bpd. Export volume is dictated not by chokepoints, but by the gap between refinery intake and domestic supply.

US crude self-sufficiency hits 79.6% (13,850 / 17,400), highest in JODI 2026; yet refinery input (17,400 kb/d) exceeds domestic output by 3,550 kb/d, locking import floor at 6,709 kb/d; total refined products inventory stands at 591,678 kb, with gasoline at 26.6% share — structurally elevated.