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ResearchMarket2026-10-29

East China Tankage Tightness and Elevated Demurrage Pressure Regional Arbitrage Economics

East China tankage tightness and elevated demurrage rates indicate that storage constraints have transmitted to spot premiums; fuel oil and asphalt prices rose in tandem, reflecting broad-based increases in regional holding costs. The strengthening of USD/CNY failed to offset rigid logistics expenses, materially weakening the economics of short-haul re-export operations.

ResearchMarket2026-10-29

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium/Heavy OSP Steady (-2.80/-5.80), Net Discount Deepened; Brent Retreats to 110.12 as Hormuz Passage Data Unavailable

SOMO’s November Asia OSP for Basrah Medium and Heavy remains at -2.80 and -5.80 USD/bbl respectively; net delivered discounts have deepened notably, with Heavy offering stronger relative value. Brent front-month settled at 110.122 USD/bbl on 2026-10-29 (-1.36%), while Hormuz Strait passage data has been unavailable since 2026-03-01 per IMF PortWatch.

ResearchMarket2026-10-28

Both crude benchmarks climb while a stronger yuan cushions landed cost; short-haul light-sweet grades reprice on the margin

Brent settled at USD 111.56/bbl and WTI at 102.20, both back at multi-session highs. The yuan's move to 6.6661 against the dollar trimmed the landed duty-paid cost to a roughly 2.5% gain, leaving the import window open. Short-haul light-sweet grades — ESPO, Dubai, Oman — regained their edge over long-haul US Gulf cargoes on combined freight and discount terms.

ResearchMarket2026-10-28

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Iran–Saudi–Turkey–Pakistan Security Talks Ease Risk Premium; Brent/WTI Pull Back

As of Oct 29, public market data shows Brent at USD 110.12/bbl (-1.36%) and WTI at USD 101.51/bbl (-1.24%); the Iran–Saudi–Turkey–Pakistan high-level security talks eased diplomatic risk premium. SOMO’s November Asia OSP for Basrah Medium is -2.80 USD/bbl and for Basrah Heavy is -5.80 USD/bbl (OSP is official pricing published by SOMO; JODI does not cover OSP, but SOMO’s OSP is policy-based and publicly issued).

ResearchMarket2026-10-27

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium OSP -2.80, Heavy -5.80; Net Delivered Discount -37.3 / -42.8; Oil Pulls Back from Six-Month High

SOMO set November Asia OSP at Basrah Medium -2.80 and Heavy -5.80 USD/bbl (announced Oct 8, following Saudi's market-share defense). Spot FOB dark discounts: Medium -34.50, Heavy -37.00. Net delivered discounts ≈ -37.3 (Medium) / -42.8 (Heavy) USD/bbl. On Oct 27 Brent pulled back from a six-month high to 115.81 USD (-0.78%), yet Hormuz saw 12 attacks last week and war-risk premium hit 10% of cargo value.

ResearchMarket2026-10-26

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium/Heavy Nov OSP Deepens (Medium -2.80, Heavy -5.80); Spot Dark Discount -34~-37; Hormuz Still ~70% Constrained

SOMO set the November Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at -2.80/bbl and Heavy at -5.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai, deeper than October (0.00/-3.30), following Saudi's market-share defense. Recent loading cargoes show FOB spot dark discounts of ~-34.50 (Medium) and ~-37.00 (Heavy). Hormuz transit runs ~82% of pre-war (~11.7 mb/d) with attacks still elevated and war-risk hull premium held at 6%–10%.

ResearchMarket2026-10-23

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Dec OSP tightens sharply as Hormuz sees 7 vessels hit in one night, Brent breaks $113

SOMO set its December OSP to Asia sharply higher versus November (Medium -0.35, Heavy -3.10), reversing last month's Saudi-following cut. The same night IRGC reported 7 tankers struck or mined - the worst single-day toll since Feb 28 - sending Brent to 113.17, a five-month high. Buyers' net delivered cost is still dragged by freight plus war risk (~$21-26/bbl transit friction), so procurement should anchor on net delivered price, not OSP list.

ResearchMarket2026-10-22

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium/Heavy Nov OSP Deepens (Medium -2.80, Heavy -5.80); Spot Dark Discount -34~-37; Hormuz War Risk Pushes Freight to $37/bbl

On Oct 21, Brent front-month settled at $108.82/bbl (flat, +0.03%) and WTI at $97.15/bbl (-0.68%). SOMO set November Asia OSP for Basrah Medium at -2.80 and Heavy at -5.80 to Oman/Dubai, a sharp deepening from October. Recent-loading cargoes show FOB spot dark discounts of ~-34.50 (Medium) and ~-37.00 (Heavy). On Oct 21 two more tankers were struck near Hormuz; IEA says Gulf shipping costs have hit $37/bbl, 5x pre-war.

ResearchMarket2026-10-21

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Basrah Medium/Heavy Nov OSP Deepens (Medium -2.80, Heavy -5.80); Spot Dark Discount -34~-37; Hormuz Still ~70% Constrained

Iraq's SOMO set November Asia OSP: Basrah Medium at -2.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai (flat in Oct), Heavy widened to -5.80/bbl (Oct -3.30), following Saudi's market-share defense. Recent loading cargoes show FOB spot dark discounts of ~-34.50 (Medium) and ~-37.00 (Heavy). Hormuz transit remains ~70% below pre-war; war-risk hull premium 6%–10%, single-VLCC surcharge up to $20M. Chinese independents continue locking 12–20 mb of Basrah Medium/Heavy and Al-Shaheen for Oct–Nov to replace lost Iranian barrels.

ResearchMarket2026-10-20

Both crudes tick up as Brent–WTI spread widens to $11.10; stronger yuan trims landed cost

Brent settled at $109.801 and WTI at $98.706, with both benchmarks gaining less than $0.30 on the day, yet the spread reopened to $11.10 after sitting near $8. The yuan firmed to 6.679 against the dollar, so the landed duty-paid cost — Brent times FX times 7.33 times grade — actually eased, reshuffling the feed economics of short-haul light-sweet grades like ESPO, Dubai and Oman.

ResearchMarket2026-10-20

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Nov Basrah Medium -$2.80 / Heavy -$5.80 OSP cut; Hormuz risk premium holds Brent elevated

Iraq's SOMO set November Asian OSP: Basrah Medium at -$2.80 and Heavy at -$5.80 vs benchmark, sharply deeper than October to defend share; with Hormuz war-risk premia (hull 6%–10%, up to $20M附加 per VLCC) and strait flows at 68%–76% of pre-conflict, Brent holds near last week's highs. Chinese independents have locked 12–15 mb of Basrah Medium/Heavy and Al-Shaheen for Oct–Nov to replace lost Iranian volumes.

ResearchMarket2026-10-18

[SNSUC Crude Watch] Brent Above 109, WTI Past 101; Nov OSP Deep Discounts Medium -2.80 / Heavy -5.80; Hormuz Transit Disrupted

SOMO set November Basrah Medium/Heavy OSP to Asia at -2.80/-5.80 vs Oman/Dubai, a sharp cut from October's 0.00/-3.30, tracking Saudi's market-share defence; Brent settled 110.122 (+?%), WTI 101.51 (+?%), with an intraday 110 for the first time since May and significant YTD gains; Hormuz Strait has experienced AIS visibility interruption since March 2026, transit status remains constrained, and IMF PortWatch reports 'data unavailable' for daily passage.